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29-11-2025 : Warren Buffett's final message to shareholders as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

Published in anticipation of Thanksgiving Day, this eight-page document provides amusing insights into the philanthropist's early years, but above all reminds us of the obvious facts that most successful people tend to want to forget or deny. Namely, that picking the right number in the lottery of life is a key factor in future success, without the individual in question having anything to do with it. Why him and not his sister, his cousin or a stranger? 

Of course, being blessed with abundant talents (intelligence, health, beauty, etc.) does not exempt you from having to work hard, take risks and show courage, but it is so much easier for those who have been given these talents than for those who have been less fortunate. Fundamentally, the personal merit of the former is less than they tend to think, hence their responsibility towards the latter, which leads Warren Buffett to distribute most of his fortune to philanthropic causes to offset some of the effects of the inevitable inequalities of birth. 

To those who are far from having his fortune, Warren Buffett believes: « Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior. »

And as he reminds us at the end of his letter: "Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman." 

Modesty? Perhaps, but above all lucidity, an essential quality for investors, which Warren Buffett has demonstrated in abundance throughout his 95 years of life. This is not unrelated to the fact that he has been the best capital allocator in human history, as well as being a great guy.

Happy retirement and long life to you, Mr Buffett.

08-11-2025 : When the wise man points at the moon, the fool looks at the finger.

Telefónica, the telephone operator with a market capitalisation of €21bn and sales of €41bn, announced on 3 November that it would be halving its dividend. Its share price on Friday evening was down 16%.

Like the fool who looks at the finger when the wise man points at the moon, the naive might believe that Telefónica's share price decline is due to this halving of the dividend. This is to see only the consequence and not the cause. The primary cause of Telefónica's share price decline is the sharp downward revision, at the time of the announcement, of its free cash flow for 2026 from €3bn to just under €2bn.

However, the value of a share is determined by the discounted cash flow it generates. Less free cash flow means less value. Hence the fall in the share price.

Less free cash flow necessarily means, with dividends remaining constant, a reduced ability to repay debt. However, when you have €30bn in net bank and financial debt, as Telefónica does, and you distribute €1.9bn in dividends per year on €3bn in free cash flow, you struggle to pay your financial expenses with the balance. 

Inevitably, if your free cash flow is reduced by a third, the dividend must be cut in order to pay financial costs without incurring further debt. Telefónica's new CEO understands this perfectly well, which is hardly surprising. In a previous life, he was a finance teacher.

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In contrast to Telefónica's situation, Ayvens announced two days earlier a special dividend of €340 million and a share buyback of €360 million. In five days, its share price jumped by nearly 9%. So would the dividend payment/share buyback increase the value of equity? Yes, says the idiot who looks at the finger without seeing the moon.

The wise man will remind him that, while Ayvens is a long-term car rental and fleet management group with €9 billion in capital, it is also a financial holding company regulated by the ECB. Ayvens is therefore subject to prudential ratio requirements like a bank. Its CET1 ratio (the ratio of its equity capital to its risk-weighted assets) must be at least 9.36%. To give itself some leeway, Ayvens has set a target ratio of 12%. At the end of September 2025, this ratio stood at 13.5%. With the €700 million payout to shareholders, Ayvens' CET1 ratio will still be above the target at 12.8%.

There are two main reasons for the rise in Ayvens' share price:

•       The results for the first nine months of 2025 are above expectations;

•       Hoarding equity capital beyond what is reasonably required leads to value destruction, as this excess capital is placed on the money market and yields significantly less (2%) than what is required by shareholders (around 8 to 9%). For this simple reason, it is valued at a substantial discount. Once it is returned to them, the discount disappears, causing the share price to jump.